U SHOULD NEVER PUNT IN 4 DOWN FOOTBALL... (an analysis)

this is not the same article i read 10 years ago that said you should NEVER PUNT - (and i think the mathamatician came up with it on the 70's) - but this is an updated analysis - i have not read the entire analysis - but the principles seem to be the same - and even the generational changes in the game have not impacted the conclusions they have made...

its an interesting read if u like statistics and probability theory - combined with football strategy... an even if you are not big on #'s - its written consicely and clearly for every1 to understand - take 10 minutes and eyball through it - be sure to jump to the conclusiuon if u start to get bored!

CLICK HERE FOR ARTICLE:

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2006/never-punting

i read a little bit of every section and i understand it. i dont like the theory as it could leave teams in messed up field positions all game. punting tho, should be considered a turnover and i agree with that part of this theory. field position for defense tho is the reason for the punt. would u not punt on your own 20 or 30 or 25 or 15. going for it at midfield seems more like a plan because the opposing team is not in field goal range.

Nice read! While i think a great offensive team would highly benefit from going into a game with the mindset of a true 4 down football, Average and below offensive teams could dig there selves into a early hole quick against great Ds. In theory a team could hover around the 2-3 yards a play and be successful. For this to work a Team would have to be really good at a few things.

1.Oline-Stupid false starts and penalties and sacks would hurt if u never punted

2.Knowing Identity- I Dont think it would be to hard for a running team to average 2.5 yards a run or a Passing Team to get 10 yards every 4 downs. But if a team tries to be too balanced it could help on 3rd downs but hurt on 1st and second more often

3.Good D- There will be time you turn over the ball on yourside of the field you would like for that to be 3 points not 7 as often as possible.

bigbuddah wrote:i read a little bit of every section and i understand it. i dont like the theory as it could leave teams in messed up field positions all game. punting tho, should be considered a turnover and i agree with that part of this theory. field position for defense tho is the reason for the punt. would u not punt on your own 20 or 30 or 25 or 15. going for it at midfield seems more like a plan because the opposing team is not in field goal range.

the theorey only holds its assumptions and the subsequent calculations if YOU GO FOR IT ON EVERY 4TH DOWN REGARDLESS OF FIELD POSITION - - sure there are going to be times that you wil be 4th and 10 on your 20 - BUT U HAVE JUST AS MUCH CHANCE AS CONVERTING THAT 4TH AND 10 AS U DID WHEN IT WAS 3RD AND 10 (and ultimately that could be the drive that gives yopu the go ahead score) -

CP makes good points - defense is going to have to be a SUCK IT UP BUNCH - the D is going to be put into tuff situations - and they are going to have to come through - but most interestingly - i like his idea of "doing what you do - and do it well" - and when u break it down to only gettn 2.5 yards a play - thats very attainable but being flexible to overcome those situations where you get a run play blown up in the backfiled or get sacked should be brought into consideration when making your play selection...

More than anything i think the old adage "keep doing it til they proove they can stop it" applies here - if your gaining 3-4 yards on the ground - dont stop - make them commit more resources to the LOS - than you are in a better position to adjust and exploit that weakness - same with passing in multi WR sets, take what teh defense gives you - if they are sitting deep in a cover 4 - take the underneathe stuff - if they are playn tuff on the shallow stuff vs cover 2, exploit the deep middle - take whats available - really that simple...